Turning AI Into Revenue: Measuring Sales & Growth Impact
Here’s a number that should get your attention: Organizations using AI reported 29% higher revenue growth compared to their peers who have not yet begun implementing AI.
But here’s the catch… most companies have no idea how to prove their AI actually drove that revenue. They see sales go up, they deployed AI somewhere in their sales process, and they assume correlation equals causation.
That’s a mistake that leads to two problems: First, you might be investing in AI that’s not actually moving the needle, while neglecting AI that could deliver 10x better returns. Second, you can’t make a convincing business case for scaling what’s working if you can’t prove what’s working.
Revenue uplift measurement is harder than efficiency measurement. Time savings are direct and immediate. Revenue impact involves attribution, market dynamics, sales team behavior, and the complexity of multi-touch customer journeys. But when done right, it’s also the most compelling ROI story you can tell.
Over 80% of sales teams using AI report increased revenue, compared to 66% of those without AI. This article will show you how to measure whether you’re actually part of that 80%, or just hoping you are.
1. Intro: Why This Method Matters
Direct Line to Business Value
Revenue is the language of the boardroom. When you can demonstrate that your AI investment directly increased sales (not just productivity, not just satisfaction, but actual dollars) you have the attention of every executive in the room.
Unlike efficiency gains (which require you to explain how saved time translates to value) or strategic metrics (which require leaps of faith), revenue uplift speaks for itself: “We invested $X, revenue increased by $Y, net gain of $Z.”
The challenge is proving that Y actually came from X.
The AI Sales Impact Landscape in 2025
The connection between AI and revenue is now well-documented:
Sellers who frequently use AI report substantial improvements across all major performance metrics, with shorter deal cycles (81% of respondents), increased deal sizes (73% of respondents), and an 80% increase in win rates.
Companies that invest in AI sales solutions see revenue increases of 13-15% and sales ROI improvements of 10-20%.
Amazon’s recommendation engine, powered by AI, is responsible for 35% of the company’s annual sales.
These aren’t marginal improvements; they’re transformative. But achieving these results requires understanding where AI creates revenue value and measuring it correctly.
Best Use Cases
Revenue uplift measurement works best when:
AI directly touches customer-facing processes: Lead qualification, product recommendations, sales conversations, pricing optimization
You have baseline conversion or sales metrics: Clear before/after comparison points
You can establish control groups: Ability to compare AI-assisted vs. non-assisted outcomes
Revenue attribution is feasible: Relatively clear path from AI intervention to purchase
Examples:
- AI lead scoring agents that prioritize high-potential prospects
- Recommendation engines that drive cross-sell and upsell
- Sales assistants that help close deals faster
- Dynamic pricing tools that optimize revenue per transaction
- Chatbots that qualify leads and schedule demos
2. Stage 1: Idea / Concept – Planning Revenue Impact Measurement
Map Revenue Touchpoints Where AI Can Intervene
Before implementing anything, identify where AI can create revenue leverage in your customer journey:
Awareness/Discovery Stage:
- AI-powered content recommendations that attract higher-intent visitors
- Intelligent SEO and content optimization for qualified traffic
- Personalized advertising that improves click-to-lead conversion
Lead Generation Stage:
- AI chatbots that capture and qualify website visitors
- Intelligent lead scoring that identifies high-potential prospects
- Automated outreach that generates meetings
Sales Stage:
- AI assistants that help reps prioritize deals and conversations
- Recommendation engines that suggest upsell/cross-sell opportunities
- Sales forecasting that improves pipeline accuracy
- Deal intelligence that identifies winning patterns
Purchase/Conversion Stage:
- Dynamic pricing that maximizes revenue per transaction
- Cart abandonment recovery with personalized offers
- AI-powered checkout optimization
Retention/Expansion Stage:
- Churn prediction that enables proactive intervention
- Customer health scoring that identifies expansion opportunities
- Personalized re-engagement campaigns
For each touchpoint, ask:
- What’s the current conversion rate?
- What’s the revenue value of improvement?
- How would AI improve this step?
- How would we measure the improvement?
Establish Baseline Metrics
Your baseline should capture the full revenue funnel before AI implementation:
Traffic/Lead metrics:
- Monthly visitor-to-lead conversion rate
- Cost per lead by channel
- Lead quality score distribution
Sales metrics:
- Lead-to-opportunity conversion rate
- Opportunity-to-close rate (win rate)
- Average deal size
- Sales cycle length
- Revenue per sales rep
Customer metrics:
- Average order value (AOV)
- Customer lifetime value (CLV)
- Churn rate
- Expansion revenue rate
Example: B2B SaaS Baseline
Current State (Quarterly):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Metric Value
──────────────────────────────────────────
Website visitors 100,000
Lead conversion rate 2.5%
Leads generated 2,500
Lead-to-opportunity rate 8%
Opportunities created 200
Win rate 25%
Deals closed 50
Average deal size $24,000
Quarterly revenue $1.2M
Sales cycle 45 days
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Forecast Expected Impact
Based on similar deployments and your specific use case, estimate AI impact:
AI Lead Scoring/Qualification: One case study highlights conversion rates of leads to sales-qualified opportunities quadrupling from 4% to 18% after adopting AI-driven lead generation.
Conservative forecast: 25-40% improvement in lead-to-opportunity conversion
AI Sales Assistants: Teams that use AI-powered sales technology report a 76% increase in win rates, 78% shorter deal cycles, and a 70% increase in deal sizes.
Conservative forecast: 15-25% improvement in win rate, 10-20% shorter sales cycle
AI Recommendations/Personalization: Companies using AI-powered recommendation engines saw an average increase of 10% in sales revenue, with 15% increase in conversion rates and 20% increase in average order value.
Conservative forecast: 10-15% increase in AOV, 5-10% improvement in conversion
Example Forecast for B2B SaaS:
AI Lead Scoring Impact (Conservative):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Metric Current Projected Change
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Lead-to-opp rate 8% 11% +37%
Opportunities 200 275 +75
Win rate 25% 28% +12%
Deals closed 50 77 +54%
Avg deal size $24,000 $26,400 +10%
Quarterly revenue $1.2M $2.0M +67%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Investment: $150K (platform + implementation + training) Projected Annual Revenue Increase: $3.2M ROI: 2,033% (if projections are accurate)
This looks almost too good to be true, and that’s exactly why rigorous measurement matters. Conservative projections can still be wildly optimistic if the implementation doesn’t work as planned.
Attribution Planning
The hardest part of revenue ROI is attribution. You need to answer: “Did AI cause this revenue, or would it have happened anyway?”
Attribution approaches:
- Control group comparison: Gold standard, some prospects/customers get AI treatment, others don’t
- Before/after comparison: Compare same metrics before and after AI deployment (less rigorous, but often more practical)
- Multi-touch attribution modeling: Assign credit across touchpoints including AI interactions
- Incrementality testing: Deliberately turn AI off for subsets to measure lift
Questions to answer before launching:
- How will you isolate AI impact from other variables (market changes, seasonality, new hires)?
- What’s your control group strategy?
- How long will you need to run the experiment for statistical significance?
- What’s your confidence threshold for declaring success?
3. Stage 2: Pilot / Proof-of-Concept – Early Revenue Validation
The pilot phase is where you test whether your forecasts have any connection to reality.
Controlled Testing Structure
A/B Test Design for Revenue Impact:
For lead scoring/qualification:
- Control: Sales team uses existing process
- Test: Sales team uses AI-scored leads
- Duration: 8-12 weeks (need enough deals to close)
- Size: At least 1,000 leads per group
For recommendation engines:
- Control: No personalized recommendations (or existing system)
- Test: AI-powered recommendations
- Duration: 4-8 weeks
- Size: Statistically significant traffic (use sample size calculator)
For sales assistants:
- Control: Some reps use traditional tools only
- Test: Other reps use AI-augmented tools
- Duration: One full sales cycle minimum
- Size: 5-10 reps per group
Critical controls:
- Random assignment (not “give AI to the best reps”)
- Similar lead quality in both groups
- Same products, pricing, and territories
- Control for rep experience and historical performance
Track Revenue-Specific Metrics
Primary metrics:
- Conversion rate at each funnel stage: Where does AI make the biggest difference?
- Average deal size: Is AI helping close bigger deals?
- Revenue per rep/visitor/lead: Normalize for volume differences
- Time to revenue: From first touch to closed deal
Secondary metrics: 5. Lead quality scores: Are AI-scored “hot” leads actually converting better? 6. Sales velocity: How fast are deals moving through pipeline? 7. Forecast accuracy: Is AI helping predict what will close?
Example: Pilot Results (Week 8)
Lead Qualification AI Pilot Results:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Metric Control AI-Assisted Change
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Leads processed 1,200 1,200 -
Lead-to-opp rate 7.8% 12.1% +55%
Opportunities 94 145 +54%
Win rate 24% 27% +12%
Deals closed 23 39 +70%
Avg deal size $23,500 $25,800 +10%
Revenue $540,500 $1,006,200 +86%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
These results look spectacular, but before celebrating:
- Are they statistically significant?
- Did any external factors favor the test group?
- Are sales reps in the test group gaming the system?
- Will results persist as novelty wears off?
Real-World Example: Microsoft AI Lead Scoring
Microsoft implemented AI-driven lead scoring and the impact was dramatic: the conversion rate of leads to sales-qualified opportunities quadrupled from 4% to 18%. In other words, the sales team went from closing 1 in 25 leads to nearly 1 in 5.
How did they measure it? By analyzing behavioral and demographic signals, Microsoft’s AI model re-ordered lead queues so reps focused on the best prospects first. The improvement in lead qualification saved time and increased pipeline simultaneously.
Real-World Example: E-commerce Personalization
Five Below deployed an AI-powered personalization platform to unify customer data and automate cross-channel recommendations, resulting in a 22% increase in overall sales and a boost in customer engagement.
The measurement approach: Compare sales metrics from customers who received AI-personalized experiences vs. those who didn’t, controlling for customer segment, purchase history, and time period.
Early Warning Signs
Positive signals:
- Conversion rates improving in test group within 4-6 weeks
- Sales reps voluntarily adopting AI (rather than being forced)
- Deal velocity increasing without sacrificing win rate
- AI-flagged high-potential leads actually converting at higher rates
Warning signs:
- No meaningful difference between test and control after 8 weeks
- Conversion improvement on small deals but not larger ones
- Reps ignoring AI recommendations
- Initial gains fading as pilot continues (novelty effect)
- Quality leads in AI group but no improvement in closes (problem downstream)
4. Stage 3: Scale / Production – Full Revenue Impact Measurement
You’ve validated the approach in pilot. Now deploy broadly and measure at scale.
Key Revenue Metrics to Track
Funnel metrics:
- Incremental pipeline generated: Additional qualified opportunities attributable to AI
- Stage-by-stage conversion: Improvement at each funnel stage
- Win rate by segment: Which customer segments benefit most
- Average contract value: Are deals getting bigger?
Velocity metrics: 5. Time-to-close: Days from first touch to signed contract 6. Sales cycle by deal size: Is AI helping close big deals faster? 7. Lead response time: Time from lead generation to first contact
Revenue quality metrics: 8. Customer acquisition cost: Is AI reducing CAC? 9. Customer lifetime value: Are AI-acquired customers more valuable? 10. Churn rate of AI-sourced customers: Are they sticking around?
Channel Analysis: Where AI Delivers Most Value
Not all AI applications deliver equal revenue impact. Analyze by:
By customer segment:
- Enterprise vs. SMB
- New vs. existing customers
- Industry verticals
- Geographic regions
By product/service:
- High-margin vs. low-margin offerings
- New vs. established products
- Subscription vs. one-time purchase
By sales motion:
- Inbound vs. outbound
- Self-serve vs. sales-assisted
- New business vs. expansion
Example: Segment Analysis
AI Revenue Impact by Segment (Quarterly):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Segment Revenue Lift AI Contribution
────────────────────────────────────────────────
Enterprise +34% $890K
Mid-Market +52% $1.2M ← Best ROI
SMB +18% $320K
────────────────────────────────────────────────
Total +38% $2.4M
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Insight: Mid-market showing highest AI impact.
Recommendation: Prioritize AI expansion in mid-market.
Sales Velocity Analysis
Sales velocity = (# of opportunities × average deal value × win rate) / sales cycle length
AI can improve sales velocity by improving any of these factors. Track each one:
Sales Velocity Analysis:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Component Baseline With AI Impact
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Opportunities 200/mo 260/mo +30%
Avg Deal Value $24,000 $27,600 +15%
Win Rate 25% 29% +16%
Sales Cycle 45 days 38 days -16%
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Sales Velocity $2.67M/mo $5.15M/mo +93%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This compound effect is what makes AI so powerful for revenue; improvements across multiple factors multiply together.
Attribution in Practice
At scale, you need robust attribution. Common approaches:
Method 1: Controlled rollout
- Deploy AI to 50% of territories/reps
- Compare results to non-AI territories
- Control for market differences
Method 2: Time-based comparison
- Compare same-period metrics year-over-year
- Adjust for market growth, seasonality, product changes
Method 3: Matched cohorts
- Match AI-touched customers with similar non-AI-touched customers
- Compare outcomes controlling for demographics, behavior, timing
Method 4: Incrementality testing
- Periodically turn AI off for random sample
- Measure impact of removal
Example: Controlled Rollout Attribution
Territory Comparison (Q3):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Metric AI Territories Control Diff
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Revenue $8.2M $6.1M +34%
Deals closed 142 98 +45%
Avg deal size $57,750 $62,240 -7%
Win rate 31% 24% +29%
Reps in group 12 12 —
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Finding: AI territories significantly outperform.
Note: Lower avg deal size in AI group—investigate.
Real-World Results at Scale
Companies currently using AI have 11% more go-to-market efficiency, measured when total sales and marketing spend are divided by revenue growth. The results suggest AI supports companies in growing revenue while keeping spend low.
Sales teams using AI-powered outreach tools see revenue grow 1.3 times more than those who don’t.
Salesforce calculated that customers who interact with AI-powered product recommendations have a 26% higher average order value.
5. Stage 4: Continuous Monitoring / Optimization – Sustaining Revenue Gains
Market Saturation and Competitive Response
Revenue gains from AI don’t exist in a vacuum. External factors affect long-term results:
Market saturation:
- Initial AI advantage fades as competitors adopt similar tools
- Early adopters see outsized gains; followers see diminishing returns
- Need to continuously innovate to maintain edge
Competitive response:
- Competitors may lower prices, forcing margin compression
- Market baseline shifts as AI becomes table stakes
- What was “AI advantage” becomes “AI requirement”
Customer expectations:
- Customers come to expect AI-powered experiences
- Baseline for “good” keeps rising
- Need to continuously improve to maintain same conversion rates
How to monitor:
- Track competitor AI capabilities quarterly
- Monitor industry benchmark conversion rates
- Survey customers on experience relative to competitors
Model Drift and Performance Degradation
AI models that drive revenue can degrade over time:
Why it happens:
- Customer behavior changes
- Product catalog changes
- Market conditions shift
- Training data becomes stale
Impact on revenue:
- Recommendation relevance declines → lower conversion
- Lead scoring accuracy drops → wasted sales capacity
- Forecasting errors increase → poor resource allocation
How to detect:
- Track model performance metrics weekly/monthly
- Compare AI predictions vs. actual outcomes
- Monitor conversion rates for AI-influenced touchpoints
Example: Recommendation Engine Drift
Recommendation Engine Performance Over Time:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Month Click Rate Conversion Revenue/Visitor
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Jan 12.4% 4.2% $3.85
Apr 11.8% 3.9% $3.62
Jul 10.6% 3.5% $3.28
Oct 9.2% 3.0% $2.91 ← Alert!
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Action: Model retrain scheduled for November.
Continuous Optimization Cycle
Monthly:
- Review funnel conversion rates at each AI touchpoint
- Compare AI performance metrics to baseline
- Identify underperforming segments or channels
- Quick-fix issues (prompt adjustments, threshold changes)
Quarterly:
- Deep-dive analysis of revenue attribution
- Model retraining with new data
- A/B test new AI approaches against current
- Competitive benchmark update
Annually:
- Full ROI calculation with all costs
- Strategic review: Is AI investment still highest-value use of dollars?
- Next-generation AI evaluation
Optimization Example: Lead Scoring Refinement
Initial model prioritizes leads based on demographics and firmographics.
After 6 months of data:
- Discover that email engagement patterns predict conversion 2x better than company size
- Add behavioral signals to lead scoring model
- Result: Lead-to-opportunity rate improves from 12% to 16%
After 12 months:
- Discover that leads from certain referral sources convert 3x better
- Weight referral source more heavily in scoring
- Result: Win rate improves from 29% to 33%
Revenue impact of continuous optimization:
- Year 1 (initial model): +38% revenue
- Year 2 (optimized model): +52% revenue
- Difference: $680K additional revenue from optimization alone
6. Common Pitfalls – What to Watch Out For
Attribution Problems: AI or Other Factors?
The problem: Revenue went up, AI was deployed, but did AI cause the increase?
Confounding factors:
- Market growth (rising tide lifts all boats)
- New product launch
- Pricing changes
- Competitor struggles
- Seasonal effects
- New sales hires
How to avoid:
- Always use control groups when possible
- Isolate AI impact from other changes
- Be conservative in attribution claims
- Run incrementality tests (turn AI off for subsets)
Red flag: If your “AI revenue impact” equals your total revenue increase, you’re probably over-attributing.
Short-Term Gains Masking Long-Term Issues
The problem: AI increases conversion but attracts wrong customers.
Examples:
- Lead scoring prioritizes “easy” closes over valuable customers
- Aggressive recommendations increase AOV but hurt retention
- Dynamic pricing maximizes short-term revenue but damages brand
How to detect:
- Track customer lifetime value, not just initial purchase
- Monitor churn rates for AI-acquired customers
- Measure customer satisfaction alongside revenue
Example: Dangerous AI “Success”
AI Recommendation Engine Results:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Metric Q1 Q4
─────────────────────────────────────
Avg Order Value $85 $112 ✓
Initial conversion 3.2% 4.1% ✓
Customer LTV $420 $290 ✗
12-mo churn rate 22% 38% ✗
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Diagnosis: AI is pushing customers to buy
more than they need, leading to regret
and churn. Short-term revenue up, but
long-term value destroyed.
Over-Optimizing for Conversion at Expense of Fit
The problem: AI gets really good at converting any lead, not the right leads.
Sales teams love high conversion rates. But converting prospects who are bad fits leads to:
- Higher churn
- More support costs
- Negative reviews
- Wasted implementation resources
How to avoid:
- Include customer success metrics in AI optimization goals
- Train models on long-term customer value, not just close rates
- Build “bad fit” detection into lead scoring
Ignoring the Sales Team’s Role
The problem: Measuring AI impact without accounting for how salespeople use it.
AI doesn’t close deals; salespeople do (usually). AI success depends on:
- Whether reps trust and follow AI recommendations
- How reps interpret AI insights
- Whether reps are trained to use AI effectively
How to avoid:
- Track AI recommendation acceptance rates
- Measure outcomes for reps who follow AI vs. those who don’t
- Include rep feedback in optimization cycle
Only 7% of sales organizations achieve a forecast accuracy of 90% or higher, and 69% of sales operations leaders report that forecasting is becoming more challenging. Even with AI, human judgment and execution matter enormously.
7. Key Takeaways – Summary and Action Items
Core Principles
✅ Establish control groups for clean attribution: Without controls, you can’t prove AI caused revenue gains vs. market factors
✅ Track full funnel, not just final conversion: AI might help at lead stage but hurt at close stage (or vice versa)
✅ Monitor customer quality, not just quantity: More conversions mean nothing if customers churn faster
✅ Account for competitive dynamics: AI advantage erodes as competitors adopt similar tools
Revenue Measurement Framework
Stage 1 (Concept): Map revenue touchpoints → Establish funnel baselines → Plan attribution methodology → Forecast conservative impact
Stage 2 (Pilot): A/B test with control groups → Track stage-by-stage conversion → Validate forecasts → Watch for early warning signs
Stage 3 (Scale): Full funnel measurement → Channel/segment analysis → Sales velocity tracking → Robust attribution
Stage 4 (Optimize): Monitor for drift → Competitive benchmarking → Model retraining → Continuous improvement
Typical ROI Realization Timeline
Months 1-2: Implementation, integration, initial data collection (minimal revenue impact)
Months 3-4: Early revenue signals emerge in pilot (10-20% improvements in test group)
Months 5-6: Statistical validation, prepare for scale (confidence in approach)
Months 7-9: Scaled deployment, revenue acceleration (25-40% improvements across organization)
Months 10-12: Full ROI realization, optimization begins (40%+ sustained improvement)
Key insight: Companies with accurate sales forecasts are 10% more likely to grow revenue year-over-year and 7% more likely to hit quota compared to those with poor forecasting practices. AI improves both forecasting and execution.
When to Use This Method
Revenue uplift measurement is your primary ROI method when:
- AI directly touches sales or customer acquisition processes
- You have clear baseline metrics and can establish controls
- Leadership needs to see direct revenue impact (not just efficiency)
- The business case requires demonstrating top-line growth
Revenue measurement should be part of your framework (not the only metric) when:
- AI also delivers significant efficiency or quality benefits
- Revenue attribution is complex or unclear
- Customer lifetime value matters more than initial conversion
- Strategic positioning is as important as near-term revenue
Quick Reference: Expected Revenue Impact by AI Application
AI ApplicationExpected Revenue LiftTypical TimelineLead Scoring25-50% more qualified opportunities3-6 monthsSales Assistants15-30% higher win rates4-8 monthsProduct Recommendations10-25% higher AOV2-4 monthsDynamic Pricing5-15% revenue per transaction1-3 monthsSales ForecastingIndirect (better resource allocation)6-12 monthsChurn Prediction10-25% retention improvement6-12 months
Getting Started
Week 1: Identify 2-3 revenue touchpoints where AI could create leverage
Week 2: Document current funnel metrics and baseline performance
Week 3: Design attribution methodology and control group strategy
Week 4: Build business case with conservative forecasts
Month 2-3: Run pilot with rigorous measurement
Month 4+: Scale successful pilots, implement continuous monitoring
The companies seeing revenue increases from AI most commonly report impact in marketing and sales, strategy and corporate finance, and product and service development. If your AI investment isn’t touching these areas, you may be leaving the biggest revenue opportunities on the table.
The next article in this series covers Cost-Benefit Analysis, the comprehensive financial framework for justifying major AI investments to executives and boards.
Sources
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- McKinsey & Company. “The state of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation.” October 2025. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai
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- Persana AI. “7 AI Sales Trends Shaping 2025 You Need to Know.” 2025. https://persana.ai/blogs/ai-sales-trends
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